that has a long-term fundamental decline as is the case here. do you think people have given him enough of a chance, enough runway to try to make this work? >> well, he should have come out, the way i look at it and said this is a three to fo five-year thing. there was a lot of hype with him coming over from apple and he felt on that day i'm sure he had to say this is the policy because they're trying to convince customers to buy in. he should have said i don't know. it may take five years but we'll try a number of things. >> he did walk in what seemed to be an odd degree of certainty. >> the tape doesn't lie. >> even moderate gains today, getting closer to 14,000, when that 14,164 is not far behind that. thoughts about this even with s&p 1505? >> you know, as we've been saying since last year there is a massive movement into equities. you see it in etf fund flows. shelley bergman was here today

and told you you'll continue to have the final turners and they're not out there. stocks are there. >> finally a verdict on high yield at this point? >> you know, high yield is not high yield but certainly a good place to be if you need income because those who need income should stay there but not for the capital appreciation anymore. only for the income. >> yeah. a lot of big questions being asked these days. >> yeah. >> thanks. that does it for us here on "squawk on the street." let's get back to headquarters and scott wapner and the fast money halftime. >> thank you. welcome to the halftime show. there are four hours a to go. that is where we stand. the dow is 60 or so points away from dow 14,000. primed for profits? amazon shares up 40% over the past year. will tonight's earnings keep the stock delivering for your portfolio? meyers mojo, yahoo beats the

street but should you be buying the hype? two traders square off in a high noon debate. but first our top story. is the march to 14,000. the dow is ontrack for the best january in 16 years. what will it take to push stocks to new highs? trading in the action. how about it josh? what is it going to take to get us not to 14,000 but new highs? we're only 1.5% away. >> it could very well happen but we're kind of getting into hot stove territory here. actually surprised we didn't get a pull back today. the consumer confidence number came out and kind of changed the game. i've been pretty constructive for weeks and weeks now but it gets a little bit tougher now that some of the expectations are catching up to the price action. i saw jp morgan cite the fact that the citigroup economic surprise index is reading zero. it makes it tough to have any disappointments along the way.

while i'm constructive i wouldn't put in new positions at the moment. >> before the show we talked. the consumer confidence number distorts the overall sentiment and throws you the wrong way. i talked yesterday about scaling back positions. morgan stanley. american express. even corning. but when we got that number this morning and then you see the reaction in the market place, it's almost as if folks got turned for a lower market betting and then we go higher. to me the jobs report is the ultimate indicator whether we'll advance and sustain. >> how about fomc? what if there's even a mention of concerns about prices rising? i mean, i think that probably is more significant in the short term. >> what's interesting here, guys, is that we're doing this largely without this exodus from bonds in stocks. what happens if you get that? >> exactly. that could be the catalyst to pusht market higherment if you look at just the price action take the s&p sitting 1504, 1505.

it's been orderly. you've had pullbacks that could be bought. if i look at the s&p in a bubble it tells me it wants to go higher. sure you can find potential negatives out there. the jobs number could be one of them. the fomc could be one of them. you could say earnings haven't come in as strong as you need to push the market up to new highs but the action i'm seeing in the s&p tells me that we like what we're seeing and we'll take out 1510 on the s&p and you will see 1525. >> this is a classic don't fight it market whether you're talking about the fed or sentiment or money coming into equity mutual funds for the first time in a long time for a couple weeks in a row now. why fight it? >> i agree with you. my advice to joe and josh is man up. strap it on. get long. so here's how i think this week plays out. the fomc comes out tomorrow, business as usual.

hins of more division among the fed in terms of some wanting to come out of it earlier and then we'll get to friday. and friday we'll get a very, very strong jobs number. that is going to take us, i think we'll be over 200. >> strap ons aside one thing i want to mention is the fact that the nasdaq has been -- >> one person was already going to hr on the way out today. >> well, look. think about it this way. >> his comfort level. >> historically putting on new longs when the s&p is out paced the nasdaq by this wide of a gap and look at year to date. you can drive a truck through that. historically new longs and aggressiveness in the market haven't been rewarded over the short term. it is not a question of get long get short. to me it is a question of keep in mind this is not the only price you can ever buy stocks again. >> it's not just about get long get short. it is what you're getting long. two things that are working really well today that very few people told you to get long

including myself, energy and health care. they are leading the market higher and in terms of scrambling and reallocating those are places that at least i'm looking at and adding to. >> we're due for a pull back a couple%. we've risen so much. having a great january. take a look at what is happening in the market and people want to be long. take a look at caterpillar. that stock should be in the 80s. they hit you with this announcement friday for a three-day weekend that there is fraud of about $700 million at 515. ridiculous. then yesterday they lower the range to the downside and they say things aren't that good. and the inventories are still full yet the stock is up. a risk on trade virtually everywhere. get out of the defensive names that you've hidden in for the last few years and go long risk. >> our next guest often moves the markets and happens to rundel fi management with over $800 million under management. scott black joins us live from boston. welcome to halftime. good to have you. >> thank you for inviting me. >> i know you've been listening to the conversation here.

good time to be in stocks or time to get out? >> i think it's a good time. we're not technicians but if you look at the s&p 500 at roughly 1500 it is selling about a 14.5 multiple and giving how low interest rates are and not really an alternative in fixed income by historic standards we're about a multiple and a half below the historic norm in the post world war ii era. the things i would caution though are s&p estimates are much too high at 112 reminiscent of last year above 110. we think they'll be about 5%, 6% earnings growth this year and that is where i get my multiple. overall we're feeling constructive. the only thing that could derail this would be a major brouhaha again in the congress with the president and the debt ceiling. similar to what we had in the summer of 2011. >> they gave you a little bit of cover right? they extended at least and kicked the can for a short period of time down the road. so washington at least is going to be out of it. say for another 30 days.

before we have to start worrying about the sequester correct? >> correct. >> is there a bubble in bonds? >> there is. if you look at spreads they're much too tight to the curb especially with the high yield. people are looking just at the nominal interest they're collecting but not thinking about the duration of what happens if ultimately the fed withdraws liquidity and rates back up. if the economy were to go back into recession many high yield bonds especially the lower rated ones might have a hard time paying the interest because obviously business would be soft. you have to be careful about the risk that you're taking for that nominal yield of 5 to 5.5%. >> scott, can the market continue to dismiss the under performance of the technology space when you listen to some of the earnings whether intel or last night with vm where clearly the enterprise space is pulling back on spending. the last couple years, where it

was favorable, hey, technology is good. they're rebuilding inventories. that story was listened to. now it seems we're not listening to the technology story. can it continue? >> i think the market can go up. we realized apple one time last year was 22% weighting in the s&p tech index. if you back out the excess cash in apple it's selling at about a 6.5 p.e. intel is flawed. it is a good company. i wouldn't own it. but there are good companies. i use qualcomm. a legitimate 20% grower and if you back out the $16 a share they have in cash on the balance sheet you're paying 11 1/2 times earnings. there are good businesses out there that are reasonable bli priced. sysco isn't the power house it used to be ten years ago. top live is five to seven, bottom line seven to nine. if you back out the excess cash you're paying a seven multiple and at least sysco is probably not going to disappoint you because with mobility you need band width and with band width you need cisco. >> what about other ideas?

i know there are people watching right now who want other ideas from you. maybe off the beaten path. >> it's funny you alluded to health care and the two stocks i prepared today are both health care related. one is medical properties trust mpt. a reit, still with a 6% yield. it's going to grow its noi at over 20, 25% this year. if you use a cash on cash implicit rate of return it still has an 8% implicit cap rate. basically they're running acute care hospitals and long-term acute care hospitals and a few in patient rehabs. 75 facilities around the united stat states. dividend coverage is solid. they only pay out 75% of their cash flow so there is more room. they're going to add about $300 million worth of properties in the next 12 months with a cap rate of about 10% that adds 30 million to the gross revenue roll. the balance sheet is solid. we have a larger play which is people get sick every day.

it's mckeson, $105 stock. they should earn about $8.10. it's high 12 multiple. the earnings are growing at about a 10% clip and they'll do free cash flow of about a billion 8 against net earnings of a billion six. then the last few years they bought back roughly a billion six and a billion stock year in year out. of course they benefit from the shift from branded or patent items to the generic. even though the revenues are lower the gross margin dollars are higher and they also have a profit improvement plan in place in the company so when you got 20 plus billion, 126 billion in revenue, 10 of 15 basis points is a huge amount of operating income. >> sure. i got to run but it is great having you on the show. so much appreciate it and look forward to having you back soon. >> thank you for inviting me. >> very nice. you bet. scott black, delphi management. let's go through a couple picks. joey? esv. >> i like it. potentially it could work hard. there are other names that maybe would want to be in the space

but i certainly wouldn't remove it from any portfolio on a longer term basis. >> scott we agree with him on qualcomm. we're long that name. >> so is i think weis is too. seems to be broad agreement. >> here is what happens. so much controversy about who is taking share from whom and who is no longer able to inonovate n hand sets and the idea is why not just buy the player that's selling to both? it's been something that really the stock has been sitting flat in the 60s almost forever. in the meanwhile each time it reports a quarter it gets cheaper and cheaper. at a certain point 68 being the resistan resistance, the high. at a certain point this baby is going to go. >> holdting aing it all to the story. >> and that's what's interesting is that this is really, or this past year, 2012 is really the first year apple and qualcomm were involved. so it's all upside from there. but it's a toll road. in order to be in cdma you have to go through qualcomm. and the return cash share holds

is the best story out tlnchts you're not making a mobile device without the chips and that is the wheel house. this market has been flat for way too long considering the results. >> coming up ford beats the street but is it enough to justify the stock's 50% run in just six months? cfo robert shanks reveals his plan to keep the rally going. another interview you'll see first on halftime. the mayer effect. can she get the entire company firing on all cylinders? two traders one heated debate straight ahead.

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welcome back to halftime report. i'm mary thompson. taking a look at the shares of hess up 9.25%. the hedge fund elliot management taking a stake in the company also noting that it is going to be nominating five candidates to its board of directors. basically wants to unload value in hess saying it should among other things spin-off its holdings and exit other businesses. all of this coming just a day after hess said it was going to be selling its storage terminals and basically focus on becoming a more pure play enp business. back to you. >> thanks so much. ford one of the worst performing stocks in the s&p today dragged down by a weak european sales forecast. despite today's losses the stock has had a nice run over the past six months and ford's cfo robert shanks is with our very own phil lebeau, another interview you will see first on cnbc.

gentlemen? >> thank you very much, scott. bob joining us from the ford headquarters in dearborn. let's get to what is hurting the stock today. your forecast for europe next year, you're expecting a wider loss, $2 billion for the year. it brings up the question, are you guaranteed that this is the bottom, 2013 is the bottom in europe? >> well, phil, it is interesting what's happening today in the stock market because before we get to europe we did report a really strong result for 2012 making for the third year in a row a profit of $8 billion in 2012. but we did guide that in 2013 europe would have a loss around $2 billion which is a bit higher than we saw 2012. and it is driven largely around the fact we expect the industry to decline in 2013 versus 2012. so the environment there continues to be very, very tough. we do think perhaps it's a trough in 2012 or 2013 but you know we'll have to wait and see. >> let's talk about north america quickly. your profit margins are the

story here. for the year over 10.4%. but i'm looking at note after note from analysts on wall street today who are saying we don't see growth coming in 2013 on the profitgins which has people saying why can't you continue growing the profit margins? >> well, first of all, a profit margin of about 10% which is what we're guiding to in 2013 is a phenomenal profit margin, very, very strong. so we expect to continue the type of performance we saw in north america on a margin basis into 2013 and actually expect higher profit but that will be offset and affect the volume or affect the margin from the point of view of higher, noncash structural cost. so higher profits, about the same margin. but it actually is not going to be affecting cash which we've also guided to be higher in 2013. we expect 2013 is going to be a very, very strong year for ford once again. >> scott? >> i would imagine this historic move we've seen in the yen must be keeping you up at night.

it hurts you from a pricing standpoint and certainly helps toyota. >> well, what we have seen in the market place over the last quarter or so as the yen started to weaken is that there has been some increase in incentives but also seeing an increase in transaction prices. what is happening is people are pricing and some of it's being given back in incentives but more is sticking. so the pricing environment in the u.s. still seems to be a very healthy investor expectations through 2013. >> bill? >> one last question, bob. is our ford shares -- are ford shares fully valued? i know you aren't in the position of commenting on how people are treating your stock but a lot of wall street is saying we don't see a reason to get into this stock or this company or any auto makers for the foreseeable future. >> yeah, well what's driving a total shareholder return? first it starts with growth and we do expect to grow in 2013 and

beyond. second it's ebitda margin and we have guided to a margin that is about flat to perhaps slightly lower. and that's more than explained by our european operations which were in the process of restructuring and will generate a positive contribution to the company by mid decade. then lastly dividends. we just doubled our dividend. we are expecting to have stronger cash flow in 2013 than 2012. we think we've got all the pieces there for growth and total shareholder return. i think it will eventually be recognized by the market. >> bob shanks cfo of ford motor company from the headquarters in dearborn. there you have it on a day when ford shares are getting whacked on that forecast for europe. >> no doubt. all right. thanks so much. phil le beau with the first on cnbc interview. another one at that. let's trade. okay. stocks up 50% in six months. by all accounts a good job managing the business because it is not like the european train wreck just happened.

it is a situation he's been managing fairly well. >> the street is taking the stock down big today after a big run up because of weaker than expected european sales but remember, ford shut down two plants in europe back six or eight weeks ago. that's the key. i think management has already addressed what's happening here and i think this pull back down just under 13 sets up technically as a really good entry point because they've told me as the cfo just said they're raising the dividend. they expect sales to increase this year. i think that means the stock can go back up. >> here's the deal with ford. i sold the mid 13s and felt bad as i traded at 14. the reason i did is because of what is happening there which makes japanese cars cheaper, because of the yen, japanese car makers have been coming after ford and gm since the earthquake. but you get to historical veil yigs both ford and gm are very rich and it should be lower and we don't know europe is going to buy more cars. >> you are a buyer. you? >> i would just say anything less than a home run you get to

sell off today but ford is making a bigger bet which is on quality. they were ranked 4 of 22 car companies in north america on quality. i think that bigger bet bodes well for long-term share holders. >> let's hit the biggest pops and drops in midday trading vei valero popping. >> they beat on eps by 15%, revenue 10%. the stock has had a nice run but after the numbers i think it can keep going. >> steve wise? >> home builders continue to put up numbers. this is no exception. doing quite well. i still think they're stretched but i missed them all the way up. >> corning joey? >> i am glad i got out of this and probably not going in for quite sometime. this is disappointing in terms of price performance, relative to the earnings itself. and then to have to hear on the call all the conversation regarding the direction of the yen. it's troublesome, money that is going to just sit there for a long time. don't trade it. >> there are a lot of people who were in this name not thinking entirely about all of the macro effect. they're thinking simply smart phones or rocking.

>> they are. >> all this other stuff thinking it is a good way to go. >> i've been part of the crowd that championed a little rebound and recovery in corning over the last couple months. you had it but it's exhausted now and disappointing today. >> josh, hp? >> the proximate cause for today's down 3% drop is really about the specs being leaked on a chrome book. people were a little disappointed with what they think is going to be three hours less battery life in the competitors. i think it is very my opicmyopi. the bigger picture this is in no man's land. i wouldn't take advantage at all. >> a pop for surfing. what is the only thing craze err than riding a 75-foot wave? how about breaking your own record by riding a 100-foot giant? a massachusetts native garret mcnamara reportedly conquered a 100 plus foot swell off the coast of portugal and the entire daring ride was captured on camera. pending verification of course. that means the 44-year-old has surfed the largest wave in

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welcome back to the halftime show time for our top three trades and first up today is pfizer. the company beating on earnings and revenue but also noting increased competition from generic drug makers. stock getting a boost. >> nothing not to like about pfizer. i've talked about this stock for months now on end.

i have to tell you i think it has 30 plus all over it. 20% growth in emerging markets. this quarter they just reported and they are about to spin-off both nutrition and animal health. that is going to be $11 billion in proceeds. they'll buy back a ton of stock, raise earnings per share estimates. i love the technicals and the fundamentals. >> what about vm? the stock is getting crushed today. down 20%. earnings not the problem. outlook the problem. >> outlook is the problem talking about the macro economic environment. listen, you have a falling knife here. you have multiple investment banks downgrading it. goldman sachs takes it off the conviction buy list. you don't buy this falling knife and you don't buy emc either which i played from the long side for many years. emc obviously having majority stake in vm where don't touch either one of these. >> all right. finally j.c. penney trading higher after reports the retailer will begin offering targeted discounts. last week on halftime bill ackman had this to say about j.c. penney. >> people criticizing them for

taking away the sales last year and going to every day low price. some people have noticed the company is starting to bring back sales and clearance. it's going to be a balance between every day low pricing and sales and other ways to drive traffic and to give the customer value which is something the company stands for. >> all right. that conversation happened before the brouhaha. so it was sort of lost. >> yes. >> that comment from ackman. what is your reaction to it? >> i think looking at -- i think what ackman has to say about j.c. penney is really, i don't give it much credibility. he's been dead wrong on the stock. but i actually bought j.c. penney stock this morning because i think the stock was over sold. i thought that a little bit of positive news like we got here could get the stock rallying back to the $22, $23 level. keeping in mind, on j.c. penney just about 50% of the float is short. keith mccullough over at head giant had a great call. it is rebounding big.

the next area of resistance, from there it could continue to move higher. >> here is my comment. i'll try and channel carl icahn. here's what i'd say. it was the wrong stock to strap it on for a period of time. take your profits off. go away. all they've done is come out and confused share holders and consumers more. ron johnson has this picture up in every hedge fund office around the world because he delivered to them the most predictable investment case which was be short. do you think the other retailers will stand by while they go out and change the pricing? the company is done. go away. sorry, bill to bring up a bad day or fast money two days in a row. >> at some point those -- the 50% short interest has to be bought back. at some point they are going to see a rally. >> i agree. that's right. >> hopefully my kids aren't watching. >> it's been great knowing you and having you on the show. steve weis ladies and gentlemen. crude hitting a four-month high today. for more let's bring in mandy

drury. >> hey there. you know, oil is currently breaking 97 bucks for the first time since september so how long before we hit 100 bucks a barrel? let's start talking futures now. the cme in chicago, i want to get to you, let's zoom out for a second. what is oil trying to tell us about global growth? is this a good indicator? >> well, mandy. a lot of folks on the floor in these pits are debating is it really global growth we're seeing and this price moving up in crude or is it more central bankers globally intervening? right now we are seeing crude. lock and step with the equity market and as equity markets make new highs we're seeing price distortion and more importantly a short squeeze in crude oil. so as we near $98 i think technically it's a little over done but everyone has been looking for the hundred dollar mark. we may not see it short term. we'll see it long term in 2013. >> we really like the round numbers don't we from a psychological perspective. rich, what do you think is the key level we do need to break through how much longer before

crude becomes maybe a drag on stocks and growth? >> you know, i think the market is going to get above a hundred bucks this year but i don't think it is going to stay up there for very long. unless we get sustained growth. three things i'm looking at right now causing this rally i believe. hedge funds have added to net loss for the last six weeks continuously and hold the longest and largest brent long position they have in the last couple years. that's smart, big money if you will. that started this rally. then you throw on a seasonal buy, the first quarter always does better for energies. that gives us a bit. then if you take a look at the techniqueals we broke out way down in 93 bucks. if we stay strong we close up above 97.50 in that range we can continue higher. 93 is my support level right now. perhaps a hundred, 103 is my top. >> okay. thank you very much. for more on crude, that is just a taste by the way. you can tune into futures at 1:00 p.m. today, a really big show. we're not just covering oil but we have doug kass on the show to give us his bold call.

billy bearish call on where the s&p is going to go. next a big call for all investors at 1:00 p.m. eastern on futures now.cnbc.com. back over to you. >> thanks so much. coming up on the half, high flying amazon reports after the bell tonight. the stock is up 10% this year alone. what has to happen on the earnings call to keep that momentum going? and yahoo soars under ceo marisa mayer but should you be buying into the company's new strategy? two traders, one battleground stock and one heated debate, next. ♪ you know my heart burns for you... ♪

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welcome back. yahoo tops expectations, increasing revenue for the first time in four years. ceo marisa mayer, is she jolting the company back to life and should you buy in?

let's debate it. mike murphy our bull steve weis our bear. 90 seconds. >> i think we're looking at what yahoo is doing right now. you have the move here. i was actually looking for the stock to go lower on this news. >> such a good run. >> yes. >> the bar was so high. >> right. i think the stock ran up 30% into the announcement of the earnings today so i think it had to, after hours last night traded up to the 21, $22 range and now it is starting to sell off. i think you can actually trade a lot lower than this. >> you know, here is how i look at it. very rarely does a ceo come along embraced by every competitor in the technology world and that is marisa mayer. she still has the honeymoon period going. this was a good quarter. she hadn't been there so long. i'm not involved but looking to get involved. the risk/reward, down side is very limited and she could do something special because she has great contact, is getting great partners and the stock can go into the mid 20s the problem though is the

business is slowing down. and they're competing with the likes of facebook, google on a daily basis. so if you look i think that 30% run the stock had was the honeymoon period and it's over and right now she has to get the business organic growth. >> which i think she can but it wouldn't be out of the question for microsoft to come back and make another bid. >> right. >> they've done things like that in the past. >> stranger things have happened correct. that is really your only bet on yahoo here is the sum of the parts valuation. you look at the cash and asian assets sure. >> they can shrink the capitalization in a major way by selling assets. they have a great balance sheet. that's why i say the down side is protected. if you can quantify your down side which is less than 10% which any stock has maybe you can get to the up side. >> i think 17 was the breakout area and it goes back to there. >> that is the last word. gavel comes down. josh brown who made the more compelling argument on yahoo? >> i got to give it to murph. i think the enthusiasm rally about the new ceo has run its course and we all expect them to make major strides this year but let's see them. right now they're fading the

stock. i don't expect another 30% enthusiasm rally happening minus actual fundamental improvement. >> joe, i'll get your opinion as well. what seems to be happening, this is a ceo with a credible vision at least as wall street is concerned. >> and i have a very strong opinion. i think murph is right. the stock has appreciated solely because of the aggressive buy back program. i think that is now priced in and that mobile strat absolutely stinks. i think further appreciation in yahoo is not going to occur. >> all right. well amazon shares soaring 40% over the past year which means the bar tonight with the earnings report is high. what does the company need to say to keep the run going? peter dixon manages the five star rated fidelity select retail fund with jones amazon and joins us live. nice to see you. >> thanks for having me back today. >> stocks had a great run. what does it need to do now? >> well, you know, i'm a believer stocks follow earnings so first and foremost i'm looking for earnings growth and also what they do with the top

line. >> earnings are the key question though right? they reported a net loss in the third quarter. certainly seems more concerned about long term at the sacrifice of short-term profitability wouldn't aw debris wi-- you agr that? >> i suppose so. i'm not necessarily thinking about the quarter specifically. what i'm looking for is anything that they say that changes my view in the long term potential of the business. >> what could that be? >> well, you know, share gains, certainly anything, any commentary on their build out of infrastructure. things like that. but really i'm thinking long term and looking for the best earnings growth stories and generally looking for good brands or fast growing categories. any color around that is key for me. >> wouldn't you agree after a run like this stock has had it makes sense for most investors to say even if i miss another 10 or 15 points the risk/reward is so skewed toward something happening to the downside that

maybe i'll go into tonight with half a position or two-thirds of a position? isn't that the prudent thing to do even if we love this business long term? >> you know, that is a great question. if i think about the opportunity long term, look at the total revenue side versus some other very large brick and mortar retailers and if you think long term think about what this company could be, you get -- i get a little less worried about quarter by quarter. i think you could go back to a number of quarters amazon has reported and have the same argument heading into that quarter and see what they've done and what the stock has done. >> you know, amazon has been a great story because they continue to push to incur additional costs and evaluation actually gets higher as the stock moves up in some cases. when do you think there is like this moment where the valuation actually will bring other people to the stock rather than just hoping it works out? >> you know, certainly valuation has been a question for amazon for a long time and i think a key question that goes along with that is what is the

normalized level of earnings for them or operating margin? and the reality is a lot of people we just don't necessarily know but you have to look at what they're doing to build that infrastructure, what they've been doing for revenue growth, and make your best guess as to what earnings could be if they weren't investing so much. think about long term. how big could this company be? what could earnings actually be? what would valuation be on a more normalized level of earnings and put valuation in that light and think about it in different ways rather than just where is the stock today and what is the current earnings estimate. >> right, peter, great to talk to you. thanks so much. >> thanks for having me back. >> all right. peter dixon fidelity portfolio manager. >> i've been consistently bullish on amazon but thanks to my friends at risk reversal i see the options market is pricing in like an 8.5 to 9% move after the news. the last three quarters in a row it's a 9% spike. if you think that is going to continue without dropping any profits to the bottom line history says otherwise.

other examples. so i love the stock. i love the story. i've been bullish but i think on into tonight maybe take a little bit off just in case. >> guys, what do we do? tremendously high valuation. >> well, a lot of folks have poured investment dollars into ebay and i think the prudent thing to do this evening is to own some ebay puts just in case amazon really disappoints the market. i think that is where a significant exposure is. >> i've been short amazon. i'm not short currently but before the day closes today i will be long puts betting the stock has a big drop on the earnings. >> why the negative bias? >> really it comes down to a valuation. looking at and knowing that it's been able to hold this valuation for such a long time. but i think at some point one chink in the armor and i think it's got to be as josh pointed out a 9% move being priced into the options market. i think you could see a massive sell off if they disappoint. >> okay. as we head to break let's take a look at the dow. we are less than 60 points away from 14,000. only about 1.6% from the highs

of 2007 as this march higher for the u.s. stock market continues. coming up on halftime a home builder and a major energy player hitting multi year highs but is it time to sell the winners? a round of hold 'em or fold 'em is next. it's make or break for research in motion. the stakes are high as the company gets ready to unveil officially, finally blackberry 10. will it be a sell the news event? our traders take positions ahead of that big event tomorrow.

coming up at the top of the hour is the great rotation from bonds to stocks finally here? we'll discuss it and show you how to position your portfolio. profit at harley davidson. shares are up. harley's ceo joins us for a rare and exclusive interview. and one nfl star says he doesn't think the nfl will even exist 30 years from now. could he be right? we'll explore that and more on power top of the hour. meantime back to scott and the fast money halftime report. >> all right. thanks so much. see you in about 15 minutes. in less than 24 hours research in motion will unveil its blackberry 10 and after a big run, shares are dropping ahead of tomorrow's event which many are calling a make or break moment for the device maker. let's take our positions. josh brown, you're forever tied with this one. i'm going with you first. >> i'm not long. i'm not short. the trouble is typically these

types of things are selling the news. they're already selling the news before the news even comes out. i don't know how wall street will react. i know there will be a million articles written about it, a huge day one way or the other. but for me, i don't know if it is something i'm chasing into the announcement. >> enough is leaked seemingly about this event. buzz about it too. >> the stock has tripled off its low. i think a lot of the enthusiasm for this is priced in but one interesting aspect is really the shorts haven't covered the whole way out which leads me to believe they've been averaging up on their position. which is usually a loser. >> a stunning chart by the way. let's put it back up. did that say a hundred percent in three months? >> yeah. more than that. >> that's crazy. if the stock was trading up, sorry, if the stock was trading up in the mid 18s where it ran up to about a week ago i think it would be a pretty easy trade to just come in and short the stock into this announcement tomorrow but it has pulled back almost 20% from the high so i have no position. i'll be watching this.

>> i still have a little of my trading position left and i actually think it stands a good chance i'll be at the event tomorrow. i'm looking forward to using the phone. the reviews have all been phenomenal. nothing mixed about the reviews and i think it's time for a phone like this. more advanced. the browser is faster than the iphone. everybody i talked to who loved the iphone, even my kids, and this is the shelby indicator, are tired now of typing it in bad e-mails. >> launch it with a hundred thousand apps. i think this is important to understand. this is not going to launch as a platform that is abandoned at birth. there is going to be interest in this for more than just one day. >> and there's interest from the carriers also. >> right. >> who don't want to pay apple their high subsidy anymore. >> right. >> so i think it's actually -- >> are you going to be on stage? >> he won't know it but i may be. >> okay. all right. coming up on halftime the euro continues to rally against the dollar. is now the time to get short? your money in motion trade is next. you asked for it on twitter. we'll deliver with trades on

everything from halliburton to seagate so you can make your next move. back in two minutes. [ male announcer ] at his current pace, bob will retire when he's 153, which would be fine if bob were a vampire. but he's not. ♪ he's an architect with two kids and a mortgage. luckily, he found someone who gave him a fresh perspective on his portfolio. and with some planning and effort, hopefully bob can retire at a more appropriate age. it's not rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.

it's tough to buy the losers and sell the winners. let's play hold 'em, followed 'em. first toll brothers trading at the highest since 2005. who wants toll? >> i will take toll because i've been completely wrong on it.

i'm an investor that hasn't owned it all the way up. what do you do with it here? september 21st, a high. it stays below that for a couple of months. now you exceed. you own puts, stay the stock as my good friend mike murphy has done. >> who wants shanneer energy. >> i will. they export national gas. hess will come in competing. they don't have approval yet but are looking. a lot thought it would be a not to chennier, because it to go lower. >> validating. >> validating. i think the stock can continue to move. >> euro continuing its steady climb against the dollar up more than 2%. should you bet on the trend to continue? let's bring in andy bush of the bush update. andy, good to see you again? >> hey, scotty. two interesting things here.

you have the euro on this run higher versus the dollar. then you have the yen on the run lower versus the dollar. both are starting to get crowded unless they are already crowded. what about the euro here. pretty resilient, wouldn't you say? >> yes, i think so. that's what i like to do as a trader, let the market tell me what to do. clearly the euro has not backed off its really even though the euro yen came with it. euro puts in new highs, bumping up against 135. i would say because the politicians in europe, specifically the central bank, keeps saying it's okay to strengthen, let's go with that. >> okay. so what levels are we talking about here for a good trade? >> so last friday on the show, we said buy euros at 12435. that's working out great. i'm trying to put in a momentum trade for you momentum traders. buy a break at 135, by 1.3510.

leave a stop at 13475 and look for 13610 on the upside. tomorrow, weedman speaks, a strong ad hoc proponent of the euro. you have positive risks if we start to go up and i love it for a trade. >> andy, great stuff. that's why we have you on. >> all right, scott. >> you can see much more currency trading on money in motion. that is every friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. when you, the the viewers, ask, we deliver here on halftime with trades on four stocks that lit up my twitter feed. halliburtonon, timber, vale, plum correct. >> halliburtonon, energy. we want to own that. energy is strong. i like the recovery of halliburton and schlumberger. >> i love the fact we have new names, plum creek timber.

>> you look, it's a reit and the stock is up over 10% year-to-date. why? the timber industry is getting a lot of demand from housing. you have a lot of demand for lumber and for plywood. that's what's helping plum creek. with this move, 10% for the month, you should fade this, take some profits. >> vale, before you answer let me say stephanie is watching. >> good. maybe she'll -- >> i'm just saying. >> i'm not going to say anything. >> okay. >> here is the deal on vale. >> by the way, steph, you owe me. >> it's the third time they cut their dividend this year. the company has trouble forecasting their own cash earnings. recovered very nicely but way too far the other way. i wouldn't own it. i wouldn't short it but wouldn't own it. >> sea gate is our last one. buy, sell, hold, the reasons why. >> this is another company that had to put up literally a grand slam to maintain what it gained,

35% since december. unfortunately they did not, guidance was weak, three firms cut it. there's a nice dividend. it's certainly not terribly expensive but it's broken now. you give it time to set up. if you really love it, you probably have a crack in the high 20s, low 30s. >> all right. we'll take a quick break and come back. final trade, around the horn from everybody. ♪ you know my heart burns for you... ♪

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